The fork is still in the road

The other day (sorry, our network has been crap lately because of a couple of dust storms) I sat in a smoke fogged room with 30 sheiks and a whole bunch of Iraqi officers. The sheiks basically peed on the leg of the Iraqi Army Division Commander, who heard all of their grievances. Many of them blamed the coalition for the problems today, and they pretty much expected to be coddled to because they were sheiks of tribes. Towards the end, Major General Ali (the Division Commander) finally snapped, and to his credit, he turned all of these grievances back on the sheiks. He told them they were the impediment to progress in Iraq. He said “if you are all such big and influential leaders, why don’t you solve your own problems? The coalition has given you security, and it has given you millions of dollars in reconstruction money. It’s your fault that you haven’t done anything with it!!!” This brought about a muffled quiet in the room.

Looking at this through western eyes, yes, Iraq has been handed a silver platter of opportunity. Coalition forces restored relative peace (well, ok, after we screwed it up the first time) and have set the conditions for a free government that Iraq elected. And here’s this sheik with his hand out, telling us he wants more. That’s the initial reaction I had, too.

But then again, it goes back to this fork in the road: What is the current form of government in Iraq? Is it representative government or this feudal tribal system?

The election results for the provincial elections came out last week. There are 18 provinces in Iraq, and in January the people voted in elections in 14 of the 18 provinces. In Baghdad province, the people voted on 57 seats. 28 seats went to the current Prime Minister Maliki’s party, (Shia) whose platform was national reconciliation and the restoration of law and order. The second highest set of votes went to a Sunni party called The Accordance Front, whose main stance is defense of this National project, rejection of sectarian violence, and Iraqi sovereignty. I won’t rehash all of the other six parties, but the non-sectarian nationalist parties did well, and the religious platforms (AKA: Sadr) did not do well. You could probably lump a good chunk of the sheiks in the latter categories.

Maybe we are at a turning point. There are still some knuckleheads out there, influenced by Iran, who is no doubt terrified of a stable independent non-sectarian autocratic government next door.

Stay tuned…

Hope all's well-- take care.
Ron