Iraq's Future

As mentioned below, I don't know what will happen to Iraq. Right now there is a great deal of jockeying for power. Political alliances are being made, and some say Maliki is selling his soul to the devil to stay in power. There are LOTS of political parties in Iraq. The sheiks and tribal leaders are being catered to in an effort to suck up for political influence. Lost in this power grab are the Kurds. I think they just want to be left alone, which leads to theory #1.

#1: The possibility of a Federated Iraq with Kurdish, Shia and Sunni zones exists. The trouble with this is Turkey, who does not want an independent Kurdistan. I don't think Iran wants this either

#2: Maliki and a combined Shiite block gain power, and Iraq becomes an Iranian-influenced Shia country. While this is possible, not sure it is feasible. The Sunnis can prevent this, if they show up to vote this time. And the Kurds get a vote.

#3: The whole thing implodes with another sitting of a lame duck administration that spends more time attempting to hold on to power than fixing things and governing. Sadly, for the next couple of years, I think this is most likely. Iraq still requires a lot of outside aid and support. This is a country that has never really had an elected stable government, at least not in current generations. The installed monarchy of the 50s gave way to four different governments in 10 years, and it took Saddam two attempts to get to power. Once he got in he locked everything down, and strangely, things ran rather well for a dictatorship. The country at least functioned. Well, it functioned up until it invaded Iran in the 80s. From there it went to pot. Ironically, the most stable this country has been is when it had a ruthless dictator in charge.

Interesting to hear of Iran's pursuit of nukes. They are using the same arguments Saddam used in the 90s: If I tell the world I have WMD, no one will attack me and I will remain in power. Post invasion After Action reports and interviews of former regime officers tell stories of how Saddam was more afraid of being attacked by Iran than being invaded by the US. It is evident that Iran doesn't like an independent Iraq (hence the bad guys and bad stuff from Iran we keep finding). I asked my Iraqi Brigade Commander a question last night: How long until you are again at war with Iran? He said if the US and the west (UN, NATO, etc) all pull away from Iraq, he is certain Iran will attack Iraq, mostly because it is vulnerable: Iraq does not have many of the enablers (aviation, artillery, air defense, etc.) most modern armies have. However, he said if the west (ok, the US) pledges to support Iraq with defensive capabilities (air defense, artillery, aviation, etc) Iraq's confidence will be bolstered (but hopefully not to the point where it will feel its oats and attack Iran).

Any way you cut the cheese, the cheese still stinks. The cheese is also very expensive, it has a bad attitude, and it will take a lot to get the cheese to the best level of cheese possible.

Anyway, that's my opinion tonight. It changes. Some days I have high hopes for this place, other days I wonder if it will last past 2010 and the January elections.

Either way, I'll be watching it from my sofa at home, and I'll probably be drinking a beer while I do it. We have around 20 days left, and I am ready to go. A year is a long time.

Hope you are well. Take care.
Ron